Apparatus for environmental impact estimation and method and program stored in a computer readable medium for executing the same

ABSTRACT

An apparatus comprising a storage device which stores information concerning first objects to be reused and second objects to be recycled, and a modeling device which performs life cycle modeling. The life cycle modeling includes reading information concerning the first objects and the second objects that configure a product from the storage device, selecting some of the first and second objects which are diverted to a new product from a recovery product using the information, and combining selected ones of the first and second objects to fabricate the new product to generate a life cycle model.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application is based upon and claims the benefit of priority fromthe prior Japanese Patent Application No. 2000-197803, filed Jun. 30,2000, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

1. Field of the Invention

The present invention relates to an apparatus and method for aidingplanning, development, design, and estimation of an environmentallyconscious product. In particular, the present invention relates to aplan aiding apparatus and method for carrying out environmental impactestimation and cost estimation effective in planning multi-generationproducts.

2. Description of the Related Art

With the development of trade and industry, due to the greenhouse effectcaused by increasing exhaust gases, there have been a variety ofproblems such as global warming, destruction of nature caused by thetremendous amount of waste and environmental pollution caused by toxicsubstances. Thus, it is important to reduce the environmental impact toearth of industrialized nations.

In considering the environmental impact of industry, it is insufficientto focus just on the manufacture of products and process up to theshipment of the manufactured article. Attention should also be paid tothe discarding steps, including recycling.

It is required to plan environmental impact reduction from the viewpointof a product life cycle from production to discarding. There has beenincreased importance placed on the technology for developing products sothat the environmental impact of a product life cycle, from productionto discarding of the products is reduced more reliably than conventionalmethods. It is anticipated that a design aiding technique for productdesign which places most importance of such a life cycle processing willbe developed.

Of course, it is known that a technique of calculating environmentalimpact, or environmental load concerning the entire life cycle ofproducts includes LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) exists, as specified byISO 140140.

This LCA calculates “environmental impact” which adversely affects theenvironment, such as CO₂ (carbon dioxide gas) or NOx (nitrogen oxide)generated in the life cycle of products (inventory analysis), andestimates environmental impact (impact analysis). Therefore, there canbe supplied environmentally conscious products capable of realizing thedesign solution (product and product life cycle progress) of the LCA,and reducing the environmental impact if the design solution is improvedbased on the estimation result.

However, the conventional LCA technique averages and calculates theenvironmental impact of a single product. In this technique, forexample, in so called multi-generation products in which one productmodel is manufactured as a product of a basic design being modified overmultiple generations, in the case where products are recovered to removespecific parts, and the removed parts are reused in a series of the sameproducts, it must be assumed that the supply quantity of reuse parts andthe necessary quantity of parts thereof are well balanced.

Namely, in the case of considering reuse, multi-generation products inwhich one product model is developed through part improvement overmultiple generations is most suitable. This is because new products areoften composed of the same parts as the constituent parts of oldproducts. Such product manufacturing of multi-generation productsdenotes that there are products, which have been used and becomeunnecessary, are recovered, the constituents of which become availablefor reuse.

In recent years, as represented by a film with lens (disposable camera),so called reuse of parts in which discarded products are recovered anddissembled by manufacturers, and the dissembled parts are reused asparts of subsequent products is requested for other manufacturedarticles.

In the case of manufactured articles, constituent parts arestandardized, thereby enabling reuse of parts widely and commonlywithout being limited to multi-generation products.

In the case that the conventional LCA technique is applied for thatpurpose, the technique must have been utilized assuming that the supplyquantity of reuse parts and the necessary quantity of the parts are wellbalanced.

However, the impact that the actual reuse of parts has on theenvironment greatly depends on the balance between a supply quantity ofreuse parts and the necessary amount of parts derived from a quantity ofmanufactured products that incorporate the parts.

Namely, if the supply quantity of reuse parts is smaller than thenecessary quantity, the number of new parts must be increased.Conversely, if the excessive amount of reuse parts are supplied, theymust be discarded. Therefore, in order to precisely estimate an effectof reuse of parts on the environment, thereby achieving productmanufacture with less environmental impact, the LCA must be carried outin multi-generation products considering the quantity of manufacturedproducts.

That is, in order to precisely estimate an effect of reuse of parts onthe environmental impact, the LCA must be carried out inmulti-generation products considering the quantity of manufacturedproducts.

This applies to a case in which material recycling is performed in aseries of the same products.

In addition, for calculating the entire cost of the life cycle of oneproduct, the concept of life cycle costing (LCC) is adopted.

LCC denotes the cost of the entire product life cycle from materialacquisition to discarding. With respect to LCC as well, as with LCA, inorder to precisely estimate the effect of reuse of parts on theenvironment, LCC must be applied to multi-generation productsconsidering the quantity of manufactured products. Of course, thisapplies to material recycling of a series of the same products.

However, in conventional technology, conditions for reusing parts ormaterial recycling have been met on the assumption that the supplyquantity and necessary quantity of parts are balanced, thus it wasimpossible to precisely estimate environmental impact or the entire costof multi-generation products.

That is, as long as products are manufactured as company activity, themanufacturing cost cannot be ignored. Thus, the manufacturing cost mustbe included within the range satisfied as economic activities.Therefore, companies need to manufacture products effectively inconsideration of LCA or LCC. For that purpose, during development andplanning of multi-generation products, it is required to enablerealistic prediction while the supply quantity of reuse parts or recyclematerials useable in a series of the same products is preciselyreflected. That is, it is required to enable realistic prediction whileevents concerning reuse of parts or recycling are considered asuncertain factors.

However, the conventional technique originally assumes that the supplyquantity of reuse parts and the necessary quantity of the parts are wellbalanced, and thus, realistic estimation cannot be performed.

Therefore, it is an object of the present invention to provide anenvironmental impact estimating method and apparatus and a program for,when products are manufactured considering reuse of parts or materialrecycling, precisely predicting and estimating the environmental impactor cost produced from a group of products in multi-generation products,making it possible to execute effective reuse of parts or effectivematerial recycling.

BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

According to the first aspect of the present invention, there isprovided an environmental impact estimation apparatus comprising astorage device which stores information concerning a plurality of firstobjects to be reused and a plurality of second objects to be recycled,and a modeling device which perform life cycle modeling to generate alife cycle model, the life cycle modeling including reading theinformation concerning the first objects and the second objects from thestorage device, selecting some of the first objects and second objectswhich are diverted to at least one new product from a recovery productusing the information, and combining some of the first objects and thesecond objects to fabricate the new product.

According to the second aspect of the present invention, there isprovided a plan aiding apparatus using a recovery product, comprising: astorage device which stores information concerning reuse and recycleobjects; a modeling device which performs life cycle modeling togenerate a life cycle model, the life cycle modeling including readingthe information concerning the objects which configure a product fromthe storage device, selecting some of the objects which are diverted toa new product from the recovery product using the information, andcombining selected ones of the objects to fabricate the new product; anda support device which supports the plan of the new product, the supportdevice configured to allocate combined object symbols targeted fordiversion and an object symbol of the new product on a screen, anddisplay input windows in correspondence with the object symbols andsymbol to associate input product information with the object symbolsand symbol, the input product information containing at least any ofinformation on product name, previous model, product useful life,product worth life, manufacturing start time, and number of manufacturedproducts.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, there isprovided an environmental impact estimation method comprising: storinginformation concerning first objects to be reused and second objects tobe recycled in a storage; performing life cycle modeling to generate alife cycle model, the life cycle modeling including reading informationconcerning the first objects and the second objects which configure aproduct from the storage device, selecting some of the first and secondobjects which are diverted to a new product from a recovery productusing the information, and combining selected ones of the first andsecond objects to fabricate the new product; and estimating anenvironmental impact and cost based on the life cycle model.

According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, there isprovided a plan aiding method using a recovery product, comprising:storing information concerning reuse and recycle objects in a storage;performing life cycle modeling to generate a life cycle model, the lifecycle modeling including reading information concerning objects whichconfigure a product from the storage, selecting objects to be divertedto a new product from the recovery product using the information andcombining selected ones of the objects to fabricate the new product;allocating combined object symbols targeted for diversion and an objectsymbol of the new product on a screen; and displaying an input screen incorrespondence with the object symbols and symbol to associate inputproduct information with the object symbols and symbol, the inputproduct information containing at least any of information on productname, previous model, product useful life, product worth life,manufacturing start time, and number of manufactured products.

According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, there isprovided a predicting method for predicting product recovery comprising:inputting worth life of a product, useful life of the product, arecovery rate, a product manufacturing period, and the number ofproducts; generating a distribution of the number of products bycalculating the average number of products based on the manufacturingperiod and the number of products; generating a distribution of thenumber of recovery products by setting a recovery period correspondingto the manufacturing period and calculating the number of recoveryproducts based on the number of products and the recovery rate; anddetermining a product recovery time by a shorter one of the productworth life and the product useful life.

According to the sixth aspect of the present invention, there isprovided a predicting method for predicting product recovery comprising:inputting worth life of a product, useful life of the product, arecovery rate, a product manufacturing period, and the number ofproducts; generating a triangle distribution of the number of products,the triangle distribution having a height corresponding to a peak of thenumber of products; generating a triangle distribution of the number ofrecovery products by setting a recovery period corresponding to themanufacturing period and calculating the number of recovery productsbased on a recovery rate corresponding to the number of products; anddetermining a product recovery time by a shorter one of the productworth life and the product useful life.

According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, there isprovided a computer program for an environmental impact estimationstored on a computer readable medium, comprising: instruction means forinstructing a computer processor to store information concerning firstobjects to be reused and second objects to be recycled in a storage;instruction means for instructing the computer processor to perform lifecycle modeling to generate a life cycle model, the life cycle modelingincluding reading information concerning the first objects and thesecond objects which configure a product from the storage device,selecting some of the first and second objects which are diverted to anew product from a recovery product using the information and combiningselected ones of the first and second objects to fabricate the newproduct; and instruction means for instructing the computer processor toestimate an environmental impact and cost based on the life cycle model.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SEVERAL VIEWS OF THE DRAWING

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an environmental impactestimation apparatus in accordance with one embodiment of the presentinvention;

FIG. 2 is a flow chart showing procedures for carrying out environmentalimpact estimation and cost estimation according to another embodiment ofthe present invention;

FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing procedures for carrying out life cyclemodeling in the environmental impact estimation apparatus embodied inthe present invention;

FIGS. 4A and 4B are views each illustrating an example of operation forlife cycle modeling using a personal computer in the environmentalimpact estimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIGS. 5A and 5B are views each illustrating an example of operation forlife cycle modeling using a personal computer in the environmentalimpact estimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIG. 6 is a view illustrating an example of operation for life cyclemodeling using a personal computer in the environmental impactestimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIG. 7 is a view illustrating an example of operation for life cyclemodeling using a personal computer in the environmental impactestimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIGS. 8A and 8B are views each illustrating an example of operation forlife cycle modeling using a personal computer in the environmentalimpact estimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIG. 9 is a view illustrating an example of operation for life cyclemodeling using a personal computer in the environmental impactestimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIGS. 10A and 10B are views each illustrating an example of operationfor life cycle modeling using a personal computer in the environmentalimpact estimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIG. 11 is a view illustrating an example of operation for life cyclemodeling using a personal computer in the environmental impactestimation apparatus embodied in the present invention;

FIGS. 12A and 12B are views showing an example of storing the life cyclemodeling result;

FIG. 13 is a view illustrating three modes when all parts are reused inthe same products;

FIGS. 14A and 14B are views illustrating an approximation model exampleof a distribution of manufactured and recovered products in number foruse in the environmental impact estimation apparatus embodied in thepresent invention;

FIGS. 15A and 15B are views showing a prediction flow of a distributionof manufactured products in number and a distribution of recoveredproducts in quantity;

FIGS. 16A and 16B are views showing a prediction flow of a distributionof manufactured products in quantity and a distribution of recoveredproducts in quantity;

FIGS. 17A and 17B are views each illustrating an approximation modelexample of distributions of manufactured and recovered products for usein the environmental impact estimation apparatus embodied in the presentembodiment;

FIGS. 18A and 18B are views showing a prediction flow of a distributionof manufactured products in quantity and a distribution of recoveredproducts in quantity;

FIGS. 19A and 19B are views showing a flow of environmental impact andcost estimation;

FIG. 20 is a view showing a calculation example of a reuse effect;

FIG. 21 is a view showing procedures for carrying out environmentalimpact estimation and cost estimation according to another embodiment ofthe present invention;

FIG. 22 is a view showing an example of a life cycle modeling screen byway of exemplifying a personal computer;

FIGS. 23A and 23B are views showing an example of the life cyclemodeling result; and

FIGS. 24A and 24B are views showing a flow of environmental impact/costestimation.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

The present invention is directed to a technique capable of, in the caseof carrying out reuse of parts and material recycling, estimatingenvironmental impact under the weight of multi-generation products andthe actual cost to companies at the same time.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described withreference to the accompanying drawings.

<System Configuration>

FIG. 1 shows an environmental impact estimation apparatus in accordancewith one embodiment of the present invention. Referring to the figure,the environmental impact estimation apparatus comprises a processor(CPU) 10, a product manufacturing/recovery quality predicting section11, a life cycle/modeling section 12, an environmental impact/costestimating section 13, a display device 14, an input/output device 15,an environmental impact information data base 16, a cost informationdata base 17, and an external storage device 18. The predicting section11, life cycle/modeling section 12 and estimating section 13 correspondto programs stored in a memory 100.

The processor 10 executes a program stored in a memory 100, therebycarrying out required various control processing functions includinginput/output control or various computation processing functions.

The predicting section 11 predicts a product manufacturing/recoveryquantity for each product that configures multi-generation products.This device processes problems such as what and how many products can berecovered in the year, what parts and how many parts can be used asparts of the next generation products or what and how many materials areavailable for reuse as raw materials, making it possible to predict thesupply quantity. In addition, the life cycle modeling section 12 carriesout life cycle modeling of multi-generation products. A detaileddescription of this device is given later.

The estimating section 13 calculates environmental impact and cost ofthe entire series of multi-generation products. The display device 14displays the contents of the system operation or operation result suchas processing result, input contents or input screen. The input/outputdevice 15 is provided as a man-machine interface with the user (a lifecycle planner). This device includes a keyboard or a pointing deviceprovided as an input device and a printer or an audio device and thelike provided as an output device.

The environmental impact information data base (DB) 16 is provided as adata base storing environmental impact information concerning the stepsof material acquisition for products, manufacturing, distribution, use,recovery, discarding and environmental impact information producedduring reuse of parts and material recycling. These information itemsare acquired by an LCA tool. The cost information data base (DB) 17stores cost information concerning the steps of material acquisition forproducts, manufacturing, distribution, use, recovery, and discarding andcost information produced during reuse of parts and material recycling.These items of information are acquired by an LCC tool.

The LCA tool is intended for calculating (inventory analyzing) an“environmental impact” produced in life cycle of target products andestimating (impact analyzing) the environmental impact. By using thisLCA tool, a design solution (product and product life cycle processing)is estimated, and the design solution is improved based on theestimation result, thereby making it possible develop products thatreduce environmental impact. The LCC tool is a support tool thatcalculates the cost produced in the entire product life cycle frommaterial acquisition for products to discarding. The external storagedevice 18 stores the processing or final result of estimation.

<Description of Operation>

Now, an operation of the system according to the above embodiment of thepresent invention will be described here.

The system is adopted to calculate and exhibit environmental impact andcost of the entire series of multi-generation products. The system isoperated in accordance with the procedures S1 to S4 shown in FIG. 2. Inother words, the following steps S1, S2, S3 and S4 are execute.

-   S1: Life cycling modeling,-   S2: Predicting a supply quantity of reuse parts or recycle    materials,-   S3: Environmental impact/cost estimating, and-   S4: Exhibiting environmental impact/cost as the obtained result

In the system of the embodiment of the present invention, in carryingout reuse of parts and material recycling, the environmental impactestimation and cost estimation is carried out by means of anenvironmental impact estimation and cost estimation section 13. Prior tothese estimations, life cycle modeling of multi-generation products iscarried out (step S1 in FIG. 2). This modeling corresponds to processingof the step S1. This life cycle modeling processing is provided asdefinition processing for determining what products in next generationis manufactured and diverted to which products. This processing isperformed by means of the life cycle modeling section 12 in the memory100.

Among them, the life cycle modeling processing is performed inaccordance with the procedures shown in FIG. 3. That is, a command forinitiating a life cycle modeling processing function is supplied to aprocessor 10 by operating a keyboard or the like provided as aninput/output device 15. In this manner, the processor 10 activates alife cycle modeling section 12, making life cycle modeling processingexecutable. Next, a user iconizes names of parts configuring products,and places them on the screen of a display device 14 (step S11 in FIG.3). That is, the names of parts that configure products are displayed assymbols, and are pasted on the screen.

The user can specify paste positions of the names of the iconized partsarbitrarily only by moving the icon position using the mouse.

For example, the appearances of the above operation are as shown in FIG.4A, FIG. 4B, FIG. 5A, FIG. 5B, and FIG. 6. First, the user pastes anicon 31 that iconizes part names of the next generation productstargeted to be assembled by reuse parts and material recycling at adesired position of the screen (FIG. 5A). Similarly, if the next targetparts are present, the associated part name is iconized, and is pastedas an icon 33 obtained by such iconization on the screen (FIG. 5B). Inthis example, the first pasted icon 33 is for parts of a liquid crystaldisplay provided as a next generation product, and the second pastedicon 34 is for parts of a notebook type personal computer provided as anext generation product. These parts configure the next generationproducts, and thus, the user allocates both of the icons 33 and 34 to beclose to each other. This allocation state is shown in FIG. 5B.

Further, if there is another product targeted to be assembled by reuseparts and material recycling, the user iconizes the names of parts ofsuch a product. The obtained icons 35 and 36 are pasted on a desiredposition of the screen (FIG. 6). In this example, the first pasted icon35 is for parts of a liquid crystal display provided as another product,and the second pasted icon 36 is for parts of a power supply box ofanother product. These parts configure the products, and the userallocates both of the icons 35 and 36 to be close to each other. Theallocation state is shown in FIG. 6.

Next, the user operates a pointing device such as mouse, whereby theuser specifies grouped icons for part name as a unit of products byenclosing them. In this manner, products can be configured while partsare grouped (step S12 in FIG. 3). In this example, the icons 31 and 32are grouped by being enclosed by a line, the icons 33 and 34 are groupedby being enclosed by a line, and the icons 35 and 36 are grouped bybeing enclosed by line. The life cycle modeling section 12 that is aprogram of the memory 100 recognizes the group of icons 31 and 32, thegroup of icons 33 ad 34, and the group of icons 35 and 36.

Next, the user inputs product information on one of the grouped products(step S13 in FIG. 3). The product information items include “productname”, “name of next generation model”, “product useful life”,“manufacturing start time”, and “total number of manufactured products”or the like.

That is, when grouping terminates, the life cycle modeling section 12controls input windows w1, w2, and w3 for inputting product informationon one of the grouped products to be displayed on the screen of thedisplay device 14 for each group, as shown in FIG. 7 (for example, popupdisplay). Therefore, the user inputs product information on one of thegrouped products by using the above input windows w1, w2, and w3, forexample, by keyboard operation. This state is shown in FIG. 8A, FIG. 8B,and FIG. 9.

When product information on one of the thus grouped products has beeninputted by using the above input windows w1, w2, and w3, a directedlink is then established between parts to be reused and between partstargeted for material recycling (step S14 in FIG. 3).

This is accomplished by the user operating a pointing device such asmouse i.e., thereby making a drag and drop operation for icons for thegrouped part names to draw a line.

In this example, as shown in FIG. 10A, a mouse cursor is first placed inthe icon 32. Then, a line 37 is drawn between them by a drag and dropoperation for the icon 34 using the mouse. In this manner, a processor10 displays an image as shown in FIG. 11A on the screen of the displaydevice 14 while the line 37 with the arrow toward the icon 34 is drawnon the image. The life cycle modeling section 12 recognizes that anassociation with the icons 32 to 34 has been achieved.

Next, the user places the mouse cursor in the icon 31, and then, draws aline 38 between them by a drag and drop operation toward the icon 35using the mouse. In this manner, the processor 10 displays an image asshown in FIG. 10B on the screen of the display device 14 while the line38 with the arrow from the icon 31 to the icon 35 is drawn on the image.The life cycle modeling section 12 recognize that association from theicon 31 to the icon 35 has been achieved.

Next, the user clicks an arbitrary point of the lines 37 and 38 with thearrow by using the mouse. Then, a screen for selection of reuse of partsor material recycling pops up. When any of these selections is made, theline is specified as association for reuse of parts or association formaterial recycling. In this example, assuming that reuse of parts areselected and determined, the life cycle modeling section 12 recognizesthat the lines 37 and 38 has been associated with each other for thepurpose of reuse of parts. Then, the processor 10 displays reuse at thepositions of the lines 37 and 38 on the screen accordingly. The screenon which the above processing terminates is shown in FIG. 11.

Now, processing for establishing an effective link between these partsterminates, and life cycle modeling is completed.

In this way, in life cycle modeling processing, icons having part nameiconized therein are grouped, and product information on one of thesegrouped products (“product name”, “previous model name”, “product usefullife”, “manufacturing start year”, “an estimated total number ofmanufactured products” or the like) is inputted. To the “previous modelname”, the information on product LCA of constituent parts in thatproduct and the LCC information are attached as related information. Thelife cycle modeling section 12 acquires these items of information froman environmental impact information data base 16 and a cost informationdata base 17.

The environment impact information data base 16 stores environmentalimpact information concerning the steps of material acquisition forproducts, manufacturing, distribution, use, recovery, and discardingthat are calculated by the LCA technique conventionally used byemploying the LCA tool and environmental impact information producedduring reuse of parts and material recycling. The cost information database 17 stores cost information concerning the steps of materialacquisition for products, manufacturing, distribution, use, recovery,and discarding that are calculated by the LCC technique conventionallyused by employing the LCC tool and cost information produced duringreuse of parts and material recycling. Thus, the life cycle modelingsection 12 can acquire environmental impact information (product LCA) ofproduct simplex and cost information (LCC information in the form shownin FIGS. 12A and 12B, for example, as a result of carrying out lifecycle modeling processing in accordance with the procedures shown inFIG. 3. An arterial system used herein denotes the steps of materialacquisition for products to distribution in a life cycle, and a venoussystem used herein denotes the steps of recovery to discarding.

For example, at the step of “material acquisition for products”, partname “14” LCD (14-inch liquid crystal display) weight 800 g, an amountof manufacture related CO₂ (an amount of carbon dioxide gas produced bythe manufactured and discharged to the outside) is 3500 g, the part cost(produced cost) is 20000 Yen. At the step of “reuse”, in the part name“14” LCD (14-inch liquid crystal display) an amount of recovery orinspection related CO₂ (an amount of carbon dioxide gas produced duringinspection for recovery and reuse and discharged to the outside) is 100g, the recovery and inspection cost (cost produced during recovery andinspection) is 500 Yen. Also, CO₂ per unit weight at the step of“discarding” (an amount of carbon dioxide gas produced during discardingand discharged to the outside) is 0.8 g, the cost per unit weight is 0.5yen.

These items of information are managed by being linked (associated) withicons (part names configuring products displayed as symbols and pastedon the screen) on the screen, and the linked information is calculatedso as to make data available for use.

The environmental impact information and cost information employedherein are provided as an example of the product LCA and LCC informationby way of exemplifying a notebook type personal computer. These items ofinformation are calculated by employing the conventionally available LCAtechnique and LCC technique. In addition, a calculation system using anindustry related chart or a technique using an accumulation approach andthe like is applicable.

When such life cycle modeling processing terminates, a supply quantityof reuse parts and recycle materials is then predicted in accordancewith the procedures as shown in FIGS. 16A and 16B or FIGS. 18A and 18B(step S2 in FIG. 2). This supply quantity prediction processing isperformed by the predicting section 11.

According to the procedures shown in FIGS. 15A and 15B, the total numberK of periods to be calculated is input (S21). The initial values, i.e.,the product number i−1, the number of periods k=1, and the accumulateduse quality U(i)=0 are set (S22). It is determined whether the nextgeneration model exists for the product i (S23). When the determinationis YES, the manufacturing period Tp(i) of product i=manufacturing starttime Tpn(i) of next generation model of product i−manufacturing starttime Ts(i) of one product I is computed (S24). When the determination isNO, Tp(i)=allowable manufacturing period Ta(i) of product i is computed(S25).

It is determined whether Ts(i)≦k<Ts(i)+Tp(i) (S26). When thedetermination is YES, the manufacturing quantity P(k, i) of product i inperiod “k”=gross manufacturing P(i)/manufacturing period Tp(i) ofproduct i is computed (S27). When the determination is NO, P(k,j)=0 isset (S28). Ts(i)+min{product useful life la(i), product worth lifelr(i)}≦k≦Ts(i)+Tp(i)+min{la(i), lr(i)} is determined (S29). When thedetermination is NO, the recovery quantity C (k, i) of product i inperiod “k”=0 is computed (S30). When the determination is YES, the C(k,i)=gross manufacturing quantity P(i) of product (i)×recovery rateC(i)/manufacturing period Tp(i) of product is computed (S31).

Next, the accumulated use quantity U(i) of product i=U(i)+P(k, i)−C(k,i)/C(i) is computed (S32). It is determined whether k=K (S33). When thedetermination is NO, k=k+1 is computed and the processing returns to thestep 26 (S34). When the determination is YES, it is determined whetheri=I (S35). When the determination is NO, i=i+1 is calculated and theprocessing returns to the step S23 (S36). When the determination is YES,the result is saved (S37).

In the procedure shown in FIGS. 16A and 16B, when the determination ofthe step S23 is YES, the manufacturing period Tp(i) of product i=productworth life (lr(i)) is computed and the processing advances to the stepS26 (S41).

In the procedure shown in FIGS. 18A and 18B, when the determination ofthe step S23 is YES, the manufacturing period Tp(i) of producti=2×{manufacturing start time Tpn(i) of next generation model of producti−manufacturing start time Ts(i) of one product i} is computed (S51).When the determination of the step S26 is YES, the following computationis performed. When the determination of the step S26 is YES, thefollowing computation is performed. The manufacturing quantity P(k, i)of product i in period “k”=k×P(i)/[quotient of {Tp (i)+1}²/4] whenk≦Tp(i)/2, or {Tp(i)−k×1}×P(i)/[quotient of {Tp(i)+1}²/4] when k>Tp(i)/2(S52). When the determination of the step S29 is YES, C(k,i)=P(k−min{la(i),lr(i)},i)×recovery rate C(i)/Tp(i) is computed and theprocessing advances to the step S32.

The predicting section 11 predicts a product manufacturing/recoveryquantity for each product that configures multi-generation products.This device processes problems such as what and how many products can berecovered in the year, what parts and how many parts can be used asparts of the next generation products or what and how many materials areavailable for reuse as raw materials, making it possible to predict thesupply quantity.

When the supply quantity of the reuse parts and recycle materials ispredicted, the environmental impact and cost accumulation is performedin accordance with the procedure shown in FIGS. 19A and 19B (step S3 inFIG. 2). First, the total number K of periods to be calculated is input(S61). An initial values, i.e., the product number i=1, the number ofperiods k=1, the parts targeted for reuse j=1, the allowable assignmentquantity of reuse parts R(j)=0 are set (S62). The manufacturing quantityof product i in period “k”, recovery quantity, and accumulated usequantity are read from the external storage device 18 (S63). It isdetermined whether i=I (S64). When the determination is NO, i=i+1 iscalculated and the processing returns to the step 63 (S65). When thedetermination is YES, R(j)=R(j)+summation of all product types Σ [C(k,i)×quantity N(j, i) when parts j are used in product i] is computed(S66).

Next, it is determined whether R(j)>0 (S67). When the determination isYES, demand/supply balance Δj=R (j)−summation of all product types Σ[P(k, i)×quantity N(j, i)] is computed (S68). It is determined whetherΔj=0 (S69). When the determination is YES, it is determined that R(j)=0,namely, all recovered parts are reused, and no redundant recovered partexists.(S70). When the determination is NO, it is determined whetherΔj>0 (S71). When the determination is YES, it is determined whether Δj>0(S71). When the determination is YES, it is determined that R(j)=0,namely, all recovered parts are reused, and in sufficient parts arenewly manufactured (S72). When the determination of the step 71, it isdetermined that R(j)=Δj, namely, redundancy parts of reuse aretransferred to next period.(S73).

Next, it is determined whether j=J (S74). When the determination is NO,j=j+1 is calculated and the processing returns to the step S66 (S75).The determination is YES, company's cost, generated CO₂ in period “k”are calculated (S76). The manufacture's cost indicates materialacquisition cost, manufacture cost, distribution cost, productretrieving cost, reuse cost, recycle cost, and discard cost in theproduct life cycle. The costs during K period within these costs areaccumulated. The generated CO₂ indicates CO₂ generated in the entire ofthe product life cycle, that is, the stages of material acquisition,manufacturing, distribution, use, product retrieving, reuse, recycle,and discarding. The amounts of CO₂ during k period within the stages areaccumulated.

It is determined whether k=K (S77). When the determination is NO, k=k+1is calculated and the processing returns to the step 63 (S78). When thedetermination is YES, the company's cost, generated CO₂ are estimatedover full periods (S79). The result is saved in the external storagedevice 18 (S80). Here, company's cost includes material cost, partscost, manufacturing cost, distributing cost, recovery cost, inspectioncost and discarding cost. And generated CO2 consists of CO2 come alongwith entire life cycle process.

The above processing corresponds to the procedure S3 in FIG. 2. Theenvironmental impact/cost estimation processing is performed by means ofan environmental impact/cost estimating section 13 by using informationcontained in an environment impact information data base 16 and a costinformation data base 17. Then, the environment impact and cost of theentire series of multi-generation products are calculated.

Next, the estimation result is displayed on the display device 14 (stepS4 in FIG. 2). This processing corresponds to the procedure S4. As aresult, an operator can know the environmental impact and cost of theentire series of multi-generation products. In carrying out reuse andrecycling, a frame of applicable products can be properly distributed,making it possible to carry out optimal reuse of parts and materialrecycle considering both the LCA and LCC.

A brief description of operation of the entire system according to thepresent invention has now been completed.

Here, what is achieved by the system according to the present inventionis to achieve operation such that reuse parts or recycle materials to bediverted from used products is supplied to a subsequent manufacturewithout any excess or shortage, thereby making it possible to obtain themaximum effect in view of the LCA and LCC. Therefore, in the systemaccording to the present invention, the most important factor is howprecisely and simply a supply quantity of reuse parts/recycle materialscan be predicted. Therefore, embodiments of the above prediction systemwill be described in more detail.

<Predicting Manufactured and Recovered Product Quality>

As described above, in the system according to the present invention, asupply quantity of reuse parts/recycle materials is predicted by meansof the predicting section 11. In the system according to the presentinvention, this prediction is carried out by using a recoverydistribution approximation model as shown below, whereby a supplyquantity of reuse parts/recycle materials can be predicted realisticallywhile ensuring maximally simplified processing.

In general, the effect on environment impact or cost when reuse partsand recycle materials are employed in a series of products is influencedby the number of manufactured or recovered products or the manufacturingperiod (market entry period). This denotes that, if an attempt is madeto precisely estimate the environmental impact or cost, all the productsmust be handled as a group that causes environmental impact or cost in apredetermined period of time instead of environment or cost per product.

FIG. 13 is a view illustrating the above fact. FIG. 13 is a view showingthe relationship among the manufacturing period of products of the firstand next generations, the period of using the first-generation period(the period of utilizing products delivered to users), and reuse. Inthis example, the first-generation products are manufactured during themanufacturing period shown in manufacturing lot 1 indicated by L1, andthe quantity of manufactured products is indicated by a display area forarea graph A graphically represented by rectangle. The first-generationproducts are recovered as used products at a time when a predeterminedworth life Ptuse has expired. Then, parts (reuse parts) derived from therecovered products or recovered materials are reused for productmanufacture in manufacturing lot 2 assigned by sign L2 started at thistime.

The modes are roughly divided into three types, “case 1”, “case 2”, and“case 3”. Among them, the “case 1” indicates that the recovered partsare discarded as redundant parts by 50% (area graph B1), and theremaining 50% are available for reuse in “manufacturing lot 2” L2).

In addition, the “case 2” indicates that recovered parts are availablefor reuse in “manufacturing lot 2” L2 (area graph C).

The “case 3” indicates that recovered parts are available for reuse in“manufacturing lot 2” L2 by 50% (area graph D2), but the remaining 50%requires manufacture of new parts (area graph D1).

For the better understanding of the effect of the system according tothe present invention, a description will be given, assuming a case inwhich products targeted to be analyzed correspond to products with avery short worth life, products can be recovered by 100% after use, andfurther, all the parts contained in those products are available forreuse (that is, reuse possibility=100%).

In this assumption, the effect of reuse of parts on environmentalimpact/cost depends on the quantity of manufactured products havingreuse parts incorporated therein. Therefore, if the quantity of partsused in “manufacturing lot 1” L1 is larger than the required quantity ofparts in “manufacturing lot” L2, recovered parts become redundant (“case1”). Otherwise, a shortage of recovered parts must be used by newlymanufacturing them to corrector such a shortage (“case 3”).

As is evident from the foregoing, it is found that the environmentalimpact/cost produced in “manufacturing lot” L2 depends on the recoveryquantity of products manufactured in “manufacturing lot 1” L1 andsupplied in market, the quantity of manufactured products in“manufacturing lot 2” L2, the recovery period of products manufacturedin “manufacturing lot 1” L1 and delivered to users, and a productmanufacturing period of “manufacturing lot 2” L2.

Therefore, the precision of the estimation result is determineddepending on how simply and properly the above distribution can beexpressed.

In the present invention, two models, that is, approximation models 1and 2 are provided as two expression formats.

<Approximation Model 1>

The present invention is primarily featured in that a retrieve state ismodeled in a realistic state, and a supply quantity of reuseparts/recycle materials is predicted in order to carry out maximallysimplified processing. The LCA and LCC is estimated based on thisprediction.

In the real world (in reality), a distribution of manufactured productsin number within a predetermined period is mainly determined dependingon the convenience of product manufacturers, and then, the distributionof product worth life and the product recovery rate are mainlydetermined depending on the convenience of product users. As a result,the actual distribution of recovered products in number is determined.

As shown in FIG. 14A, the real world presumed by “approximation model 1”is described as follows. That is, in the real world, the distribution ofmanufactured products in number within a predetermined period is mainlydetermined depending on the convenience of product manufacturers, andthen, the distribution of product worth life and the product recoveryrate are mainly determined depending on the convenience of productusers. As a result, the actual distribution of recovered products innumber is determined. In this “approximation model 1”, the real world ismodeled as follows in order to faithfully reflect the world (refer toFIGS. 14A and 14B).

That is, assuming that the period from the start of manufacture to entryof the next generation model is defined as a manufacturing period “tp”,an average number of manufactured products per unit period obtained bydividing the estimated total number of manufactured products by themanufacturing period is employed as the distribution of manufacturedproducts in number (FIGS. 14A and 14B). In a product in which the nextgeneration model is not set, there is employed an estimatedmanufacturing period, which was set at the step of life cycle modeling.

In this technique, assuming that the recovery period is the same of themanufacturing period, the total number of recovered products iscalculated by employing the production recovery rate as a fixed value.Then, the thus calculated number of recovered products is divided by therecovery period, whereby an average number of recovered products perunit period is calculated.

In addition, the product worth life is defined as “min” {product worthlife and product useful life}. The “min” used here denotes that theminimum period is selected as described above. That is, it denotes thatthe “minimum” element of two elements “product worth life” and “productuseful life” is employed as a worth life. The product worth life denotesa period in which the product maintains its value in view of the productusers. The product useful life denotes a period in which the productmaintains its fault rate smaller than a requested fault rate. Theseproduct useful life and product worth life are individually determinedby product type.

These product useful life and product worth life are individuallydetermined by product type depending on the user of this system (aperson involved in design and development of products to be estimated).

This approximation model is suitable to product category such thatmanufacturing is terminated in a single year, and the next generationproduct model is manufactured (small sized home electronics, personalcomputers or the like). In the graph of FIGS. 14A and 14B, the periodindicated on a horizontal axis can be applied yearly or monthly.

As has been described above, a recovery quantity of used products byperiod can be precisely predicted. Although in this example there hasbeen described a simple technique, there is provided an affect that theabove quantity can be easily calculated as a model very close to theactual distribution of manufactured products.

In this approximation model, manufacturing period Tp is defined as theproduct worth life, whereby this model is applicable to a productcategory in which manufacturing is continued as long as a market needexists (for example, automobiles) (FIGS. 16A and 16B).

<Approximation Model 2>

This “approximation model 2” is a triangular approximation model, andthis approximation method is as shown in FIGS. 17A, 17B and 18. The realworld is described by referring to FIG. 17A, which is similar to thatdescribed by referring to FIG. 14A. In this “approximation model 2”, anestimated total number of manufactured products is given, and adistribution of manufactured products is approximated based on anisosceles triangle distribution around a period “tpn” up to entry of thenext generation model. That is, in this case, the manufacturing periodTp is defined as 2Tpn.

A triangle distribution of manufactured products in number is shifted ina time direction by a product worth life (=min{product worth life,product useful life}), and further, the height of the triangle isadjusted so that the area for the triangle is equal to the number ofrecovered products.

As a result, a distribution of recovered products in number that havebeen triangularly approximated can be obtained. In a product in whichthe next generation model is not set, an estimated manufacturing periodset at the step of life cycle modeling is employed.

This approximation model is suitable to a product category in whichmanufacturing is continued for a comparatively long period. For example,this model is suitable for products in which, after entry of the nextgeneration model such as large-sized electronic products or manufacturedarticles, manufacturing is continued while the quantity of manufacturedproducts is gradually reduced. By employing this approximation mode,although the technique is simple, there is provided an effect that aquantity can be easily calculated as a model very close to the actualdistribution of manufactured products in number. In the graphs of FIGS.17A and 18B, the period indicated on a horizontal axis can be appliedyearly or monthly.

As has been described above, a recovery quantity of predetermined, usedproducts by period can be predicted while maintaining precision.

In the predicting section 11, there is applied a recovery distributionapproximation model for either of the above two types of approximationmodel 1 and approximation model 2. Then, calculation processing isperformed considering time intervals for works (such as washing orinspection) related to reuse of parts and time intervals for worksrelated to material recycling (required days for materialmanufacturers), whereby a product manufacturing/recovery quantity can berealistically predicted. In addition, in the next manufacture, there canbe achieved an operation such that use parts/recycle materials to bediverted from used products are supplied without excess or shortage, andthe maximum advantageous effect can be achieved in view of the LCA andLCC.

It is required that the reuse parts/recycle materials to be divertedfrom used products is predicted before starting manufacturing of thenext products so that they can be supplied without excess or shortagewhen manufacturing starts. For that purpose, it is required that eachapproximation model is optimally set so that a quantity of recoveredproducts can be predicted precisely. At the initial stage of operation,this quantity may be deviate from reality because it is defined based onoperator's experience. However, such deviation is well adjustedgradually by applying a mechanism capable of upgrading its functions.Thus, a realistically fitted model can be obtained.

As described above, the system according to the present inventioncomprises the following procedures S1 to S4:

-   S1: Life cycle modeling-   S2: Predicting manufactured and recovered product quality-   S3: Environmental impact/cost integrating-   S4: Exhibiting environmental impact/cost as the obtained result

The above life cycle modeling of S1 is directed at definition processingfor determining what parts of the previous-generation products to berecovered as used are diverted to which parts of the next generationproducts. This processing corresponds to multi-generation products.Thus, in the present invention, in order to define the direction of flowwhen carrying out reuse of parts or material recycling betweenindividual products or between products in a series, the material flowis explicitly described by the arrow. At the same time, information suchas “product name”, a“next generation model name”, “product useful life”,“product worth life”, “manufacturing start time”, or “a total number ofmanufactured products” is described with respect to each product so asto be reflected in such a definition (FIG. 11). In this manner, thesource of products to be recovered, materials to be diverted toproducts, and products to which such materials are diverted can bedefined.

After life cycle modeling has terminated, the supply quantity ispredicted for reuse of parts or material recycling by using theapproximation model. For clarity, the model of FIGS. 14A and 14B(“approximation model 1”) is used for this prediction, and materialrecycling is not assumed whether it is open or closed. Therefore, afterusing products, there are only two selections, i.e., reuse of parts anddiscarding. In addition, the product recovery rate is fixed at 80%,assuming that a period related to material acquisition of products,manufacture, distribution, recovery/discarding, and reuse can beignored. However, the product recovery rate of 80% is based on theoperator's experience.

On the other hand, environmental impact and cost information on productsimplex (as shown in FIG. 12) is obtained from an environmental impactinformation data base (DB), a cost information data base (DB), and areuse/recycle information data base (DB). The environmental impactinformation used here is calculated by means of the conventional LCAtechnique.

In the above recovery distribution approximation mode, a supply quantityof reuse parts/recycle materials can be predicted more realistically byactually considering time intervals for works related to reuse of parts(time intervals for washing/inspection or the like) and time intervalsrelated to material recycling (required days for materialmanufacturers).

Using this predicted value, the environmental impact/cost uponreuse/recycling is estimated, and the estimate value is evaluated(procedures shown in FIGS. 19A and 19B).

The result obtained by using the system according to the presentinvention will be described here.

FIG. 20 shows an example when environmental impact and cost arecalculated in accordance with the procedures shown in FIGS. 19A and 19Bby using the prediction result of a distribution ofmanufactured/recycled products in quantity of “approximation model 1”(FIGS. 14A, 14B and 15) with respect to the life cycle model shown inFIG. 11. In FIG. 20, a case in which parts are reused is compared with acase in which no parts are reused. The quantity of CO₂ produced duringreuse of parts and the effect of manufacture's cost reduction areexpressed by a bar graph, and are visually displayed on the screen ofthe display device 14. By graphically displaying the comparison result,an effect of reuse under predetermined conditions to be applied to thenext generation produced can be objectively grasped.

In this way, the reuse effects in multi-generation products can bequantitatively compared with each other by using the estimation methodaccording to the present invention. Such comparison can be performed ina completely similar manner in the case of recycling as well. Inaddition, a planner can refer to detail data as shown in FIGS. 12A and12B as required.

As has been described above in detail, according to the presentinvention, there is provided an environmental impact estimatingapparatus for carrying out at least one of reuse of product constituentsor material recycling. The apparatus comprises a modeling device whichcarries out life cycle modeling between products targeted for reuse thatis definition processing for determining what parts of the products tobe recovered are diverted to which parts of the products to be newlymanufactured, a predicting device which predicts a reuse product supplyquantity by applying it to a model modeled by this modeling device, andan environmental impact/cost estimating device which estimatesenvironment impact and cost to be burdened in the case of reuse from theprediction result obtained by this predicting device.

In carrying out at least one of reuse of product constituents andmaterial recycling, there is carried out life cycle modeling betweenproducts targeted for reuse that is definition processing for determinewhat parts of the products to be recovered are diverted to which partsof the products to be newly manufactured. A supply quantity of reusematerials is predicted by applying it to this modeled model, and theenvironmental impact or cost to be burdened in the case of reuse fromthe obtained prediction result is estimated, thereby aiding planning forreusing constituent materials.

In this manner, in carrying out reuse of parts or material recycling,the environmental impact and cost can be precisely estimatedrealistically, making it possible to carry out effective reuse of partsor material recycle. In addition, according to the present invention,the environmental impact or cost of the entire series can be estimatedduring planning of a series of products. Thus, there can be estimatedand determined the idea mode of reuse of parts or material recyclingwhich is most suitable in minimizing the environmental cost, a costwhich will rise upon the introduction of a carbon tax (carbon dioxidegas exhaust tax) discussed as one factor in determining environmentalimpact, for example.

According to another embodiment of the present invention, it is possibleto perform environmental impact and cost estimation (S3) after lifecycle modeling (S1), as shown in FIG. 21. However, in this case, it isrequired for an estimator to grasp and input a product manufacturingquantity or recovery quantity and a demand/supply balance of reuse partsfor every period. FIG. 22 shows an example of a life cycle modelingscreen according to the present embodiment. FIGS. 23A and 23B show theresults of such modeling. The present embodiment is particularlyeffective in the case of performing estimation for confirmation afterproducts have already been manufactured or recovered. This is becausethe distribution of manufactured products or recovered products in thereal world has already been grasped.

After life cycle modeling, environment impact and cost estimation isperformed (FIGS. 24A and 24B), thereby evaluating the entireenvironmental impact and cost. In this processing, the manufacturingquantity of product i in period “k”, recovery quantity, and integrateduse quantity are input by the user (S81) as a processing after the stepS62 in FIG. 19A. The other processings are similar to those shown inFIGS. 19A and 19B. The estimation result obtained by this embodiment canbe obtained similarly to FIG. 21.

The techniques described in the embodiments of the present invention canbe distributed as a program that can be executed by the computer bybeing stored in recording media such as magnetic disk (such as flexibledisk or hard disk), optical disk (such as CD-ROM, CD-R, CD-RW, DVD, orMO), and semiconductor disk, and can be distributed through transmissionvia a network.

As has been described above in detail, the environmental impact and costof multi-generation products can be realistically estimated precisely.In addition, according to the embodiments of the present invention, theenvironmental impact and/or cost of the entire series can be estimatedduring planning of a series of products. Thus, there can be estimatedand determined the ideal mode of reuse of parts or material recyclingwhich is most suitable in minimizing the environmental cost, a costwhich will rise upon the introduction of a carbon tax (carbon dioxidegas exhaust tax) discussed as part of the tendency of assessmentrelevant to environmental impact, for example.

In carrying out at least one of reuse of product parts or materialrecycling, there is carried out life cycle modeling between productstargeted for reuse that is definition processing to determine what partsof the products to be recovered are diverted to which parts of the newproducts. A supply quantity of reuse materials is predicted by applyingit to this modeled model, and the environmental impact or cost to beburdened in the case of reuse from the obtained prediction result isestimated, thereby aiding planning for reusing product constituents.

In this manner, in carrying out reuse of parts or material recycling,the environmental impact and cost can be precisely estimatedrealistically, making it possible to carry out effective reuse of partsor material recycle. In addition, according to the present invention,the environmental impact or cost of the entire series can be estimatedduring planning of a series of products. Thus, there can be estimatedand determined the ideal mode of reuse of parts or material recyclingwhich is most suitable in minimizing the environmental cost, a costwhich will rise upon the introduction of a carbon tax (carbon dioxidegas exhaust tax), discussed as one factor in determining environmentalimpact, for example.

In addition, in the above environmental impact estimation, the foregoingpredicting device is configured to define a period of product usetargeted for reuse by the life cycle modeling as a shorter value of theproduct worth life and product useful life and to approximate andpredict the distribution of manufactured products in number by using theaverage number of manufactured products per unit period obtained bydividing an estimated total number of manufactured products by anestimated manufacturing period.

In this manner, in predicting recovered products in quantity anddiverted product quantity, these products in quantities can be simplycalculated as a model that is very close to an actual distribution ofmanufactured products. Therefore, in carrying out reuse of parts ormaterial recycling, although comparatively simple processing isperformed, the environmental impact and cost can be precisely estimatedrealistically, making it possible to carry out effective reuse of partsor material recycling. In addition, according to the present invention,the environmental impact and cost of the entire series can be estimatedduring planning of a series of products. Thus, there can be estimatedand determined the ideal mode of reuse of parts or material recyclingwhich is most suitable in minimizing the environmental cost, a costwhich will rise upon the introduction of a carbon tax (carbon dioxidegas exhaust tax) discussed as one factor in determining environmentalimpact, for example.

In addition, in the above environmental impact estimation, the foregoingpredicting device is configured to define a period of product usetargeted for reuse by the life cycle modeling as a shorter value of theproduct worth life and product useful life and to approximate andpredict the distribution of manufactured products in number by using atriangle distribution having its peak value during entry of a nextgeneration model.

In this manner, in predicting recovered products in quantity anddiverted product quantity, these products in quantities can be simplycalculated as a model that is very close to an actual distribution ofmanufactured products in number. Therefore, in carrying out reuse ofparts and material recycling, the environmental impact and cost can beprecisely estimated realistically by simple processing, making itpossible to carry out effective reuse of parts or material recycling. Inaddition, according to the present invention, the environmental impactand cost of the entire series can be estimated during planning of aseries of products. Thus, there can be estimated and determined theideality of the mode of reuse of parts or material recycling which ismost suitable to minimize the environmental cost which must be burdenedin introducing a carbon tax (carbon dioxide gas exhaust tax) discussedas part of the tendency of assessment relevant to environmental impact,for example.

In addition, in the above environmental impact, with respect to modelingprocessing of the life cycle modeling device, element symbols ofrecovered products linked with the element related information and itsconstituent parts or element symbols of products indicating adestination of material diversion are allocated on a screen, therebysupporting screen action in which an item content input screencontaining at least any of product name, previous model, product usefullife, product worth life, manufacturing start time, and the number ofmanufactured products is displayed so as to correspond to the elementsymbols, and the inputted information is associated with the elementsymbols, respectively. In this manner, modeling can be carried out by asimple operation.

Additional advantages and modifications will readily occur to thoseskilled in the art. Therefore, the invention in its broader aspects isnot limited to the specific details and representative embodiments shownand described herein. Accordingly, various modifications may be madewithout departing from the spirit or scope of the general inventiveconcept as defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

1. A computer-implemented predicting method for predicting productrecovery comprising: inputting worth life of a product, useful life ofthe product, a recovery rate, a product manufacturing period, and thenumber of products; generating a triangle distribution of the number ofproducts, the triangle distribution having a height corresponding to apeak of the number of products; generating a triangle distribution ofthe number of recovery products by setting a recovery periodcorresponding to the manufacturing period and calculating the number ofrecovery products based on a recovery rate corresponding to the numberof products; and determining a product recovery time by a shorter one ofthe product worth life and the product useful life.
 2. A computerprogram stored on a computer readable medium, comprising: instructionmeans for instructing a computer processor to input worth life of aproduct, useful life of the product, a recovery rate, a productmanufacturing period, and the number of products; instruction means forinstructing the computer processor to generate a triangle distributionof the number of products, the triangle distribution having a heightcorresponding to a peak of the number of products; instruction means forinstructing the computer processor to generate a triangle distributionof the number of recovery products by setting a recovery periodcorresponding to the manufacturing period and calculating the number ofrecovery products based on a recovery rate corresponding to the numberof products; and instruction means for instructing the computerprocessor to determine a product recovery time by a shorter one of theproduct worth life and the product useful life.